It is possible to accelerate economic growth, Andrey Klepach supposed

19:29, November 12, 2020

The specialist announced the conditions for restarting the Russian economy

In Russia, the acceleration of economic growth is possible, Andrey Klepach, Chief Economist of VEB.RF, is sure. At the plenary discussion of the XV Anniversary International Conference of GSEM UrFU “Russian regions in the focus of changes” the expert listed potential opportunities that will help the country's economy in the medium term.

“We have the opportunity to accelerate growth and solve many problems. We can grow significantly higher than it is predicted. The whole question is what is the price of this growth, how is it compatible with the budgetary rule. In its current form, I think, it is incompatible, - states Andrey Klepach. - The main thing is what this growth will give for the majority of the population. Therefore, the first problem is the severity of social inequality and, in general, the level of income of the population. Formally, there are no reliable statistics - when oil prices fall, the incomes of the rich seem to be lost faster. Moreover, a significant part of the state support went to large families, people with low per capita income. Nevertheless, the topic of social inequality has not become weaker."

According to the expert, Russia needs to move to a more dynamic model of economic growth, which involves additional social measures and a revision of the health care system. Moreover, additional measures are required to support investment and technological development, new principles in regional policy, and strengthening the financial base of the regions.

“The growth of the world economy in 2024 by 2013 will be 35.3%, and the growth of the Russian economy - by 11%, according to government estimates, by 13-14%. This means that we are significantly behind. It is clear that the dynamics of the lag in GDP is not the most important thing for a family. The most important thing is income. The real incomes of the population, given the current dynamics, will lag behind the 2013 level. This means that an additional impetus to economic development and serious social measures are needed, —the expert believes".

As noted by Klepach, despite the fact that in 2020 the federal budget spending on health care increased significantly, in 2021-2023 they will decrease (relative to GDP and in nominal terms), although they will remain higher than in 2019.

“I don’t think this decision will really help to support the development of healthcare. Although many parameters, apparently, will be specified, - says Andrey Klepach. - The government approved an action plan, which provides for a fairly serious set of measures to increase the resistance of healthcare to the epidemiological situation, including support for centers and the creation of new centers in the regions, and the creation of a reserve of medicines. Many measures are still marked with an asterisk, which requires additional funding. I think that we will see the full picture of additional measures for the Healthcare national project and for healthcare in general, as well as for education, in the first quarter of 2021."

Reference

The XV Anniversary International Conference of GSEM UrFU “Russian regions in the focus of changes” is being held from 10 to 14 November in a face-to-face and remote format. The conference was organized with the support of the endowment fund of GSEM UrFU. The thematic focus in 2020 takes into account the context of the pandemic. Participants discuss the impact of the coronavirus crisis and tools to recover from the unique nature and scale of the recession. The program includes plenary sessions, academic and special events, expert round tables.